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A World Without Ice

Why ice matters—and how humans are upsetting the delicate geological balance between Earth and this critical component of our environment.

As the amount of ice on the planet diminishes, won’t temperature rise even more?
Yes indeed. This is because the sunshine reflected away from Earth by the ice will instead be absorbed by the darker materials once covered by the ice. This will warm the Earth at an even faster rate, causing the loss of even more ice. This self-reinforcing process is what scientists call a positive feedback.

How much time do we have to stabilize or reverse our emissions? Or might we be past the point of no return already?
Many climate scientists believe that to avoid very disruptive effects, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere should not go beyond 450 parts per million (ppm). Today the concentration is near 390 ppm, and increasing at about 2-3 ppm each year. Simple arithmetic tells us that we have only two to three decades to decrease greenhouse gas emissions substantially if we are to avoid passing the 450 ppm threshold. And there are some who believe that even 450 ppm is a dangerous level, and argue that we should return to less than 350 ppm as soon as possible.

Also, because the climate system has considerable “momentum,” there will be some additional climate change even if we are somehow able to eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions. This change will result from the emissions of the past that are already in the atmosphere, and will remain present for another century or so.

How do you respond to climate change skeptics? And those that flat out deny climate change?
When I meet people who are truly puzzled by the “he-said she-said” exchanges about climate change, I try to zero in on what is troubling them: Do they think that the climate is not changing? Are they unconvinced that humans have anything to do with climate change? Or do they believe that the consequences of climate change will be benign, or even beneficial? Once I learn their concerns, I try to address those concerns in simple terms that carry no political baggage.

For the flat-out deniers, those who say, “My mind is made up—don’t bother me with the facts,” I cut the conversation short, usually with a comment to the effect that they can have their own opinions, but they cannot have their own facts.

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